These results provide a unified explanation for several asset pricing and forecasting puzzles, including: (i) the excess responsiveness of long-horizon rates to short rates, (ii) the dominance of ...
This is a Stan implementation of Drew Linzer’s dynamic Bayesian election forecasting model, with some tweaks to incorporate national poll data, pollster house effects, correlated priors on ...
A novel Bayesian Hierarchical Network Model (BHNM) is designed for ensemble predictions of daily river stage, leveraging the spatial interdependence of river networks and hydrometeorological variables ...